VEGA: November 2018 Portfolio Manager Review
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than original cost. Returns less than one year are not annualized. For the fund’s most recent standardized and month-end performance, please click www.advisorshares.com/fund/vega.
|MSCI World Index||1.14%||-1.20%|
|Int. Gov’t/Credit Bond||0.45%||-0.45%|
Policy Benchmark comprises the following allocation:VEGA Policy Benchmark is a blended benchmark of 37.5% MSCI World Index, 37.5% CBOE S&P 500 Buy/Write Index (BXM) and 25% to the Barclays Intermediate Government Corporate Index.
November 2018 was another volatile month before ultimately ending up in positive territory. As such, VEGA posted a positive return of 1.17% during November. The indexes that make up the VEGA ETF Policy Benchmark were also up during the month of November. CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index was up 2.24% during November. Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate U.S. Gov/Credit Bond was only slightly positive, posting a return of 0.45%. MSCI AC World Index posted a positive return of 1.14%.
For the month, VEGA’s Policy Benchmark was up 1.41%.
November rebounded from the lows and several asset classes ended positive for the month, including:
|Vanguard Real Estate||VNQ||4.67%|
|SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible Securities ETF||CWB||2.55%|
|SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust||SPY||1.85%|
|iShares Russell 2000 ETF||IWM||1.73%|
There were only a few small detractors from the VEGA ETF performance during November:
|Invesco Fundamental High Yield Corporate Bond ETF||PHB||-0.59%|
|XTrackers MSCI Europe Hedged Equity ETF||DBEU||-0.15%|
Top 10 Holdings
|Ticker||Security Description||Portfolio Weight %|
|SPY||SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST||55.45%|
|EFA||ISHARES MSCI EAFE ETF||8.33%|
|Cash||BLACKROCK LIQUIDITY T 60||7.40%|
|IWM||ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 ETF||6.06%|
|TOTL||SPDR DOUBLELINE TR TACT ETF||4.74%|
|BIV||VANGUARD INTERMEDIATE-TERM B||4.67%|
|PHB||INVESCO FUNDAMENTAL HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND ETF||4.66%|
|DBEU||XTRACKERS MSCI EUROPE HEDGED EQUITY ETF||4.59%|
|VNQ||VANGUARD REAL ESTATE ETF||2.90%|
|CWB||SPDR BLOOMBERG BARCLAYS CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES ETF||1.96%|
As of 11.30.2018
VEGA ETF continued writing Out-Of-Money Calls on SPY and EFA, which continued to provide a buffer to the decline of the underlying securities and the ability to earn higher premiums due to increased volatility. We deem Protective Puts to be too expensive at this time, but will look to purchase when they are more reasonably priced.
Volatility shuddered markets for much of November as concerns of rising interest rates—which had dampened investor enthusiasm through the fall—were lifted by comments from the Federal Reserve Bank which were interpreted as a possible suspension of its previously hawkish monetary policy. Continued strong U.S. economic growth borne by full employment, rising wages and robust consumer spending was shadowed by the potential cost of a Sino-U.S. trade war, the depletion of fuel from this year’s fiscal stimulus in the face of a sluggish housing market and a dour macro-outlook for Europe, Japan and emerging markets.
All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in positive territory in November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the month up 1.6%, the S&P 500 Index increased 3.15% and the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.3%.
Bears asserted themselves nevertheless. The Wall Street Journal reported that BlackRock expects “stocks and bonds could both finish the year in the red for the first time in at least a quarter-century.” It also noted that “90 percent of the 70 asset classes tracked by Deutsche Bank are posting negative total returns in dollar terms for the year through mid-November.” For good measure, just in case anyone still follows cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin fell below $4,000, down about 80 percent from its high of nearly $20,000 a year ago.
Jeffrey Gundlach told investors in a telephone interview to focus on capital preservation and avoid corporate bonds and Treasuries as inflationary pressures intensify. The DoubleLine Capital CEO said investors have not shown an appetite for Treasuries even as U.S. markets plummeted. “There’s no bond rally,” he commented.
The Treasury’s auction of $19 billion of 30-year bonds received the weakest demand since 2009, as investors demanded higher yields before diving into a deluge of new U.S. government debt. Bidding was weak even as the 30-year bond yield hovered around 3.4%, near the four-year high. Credit markets are heading for the worst year since the global financial crisis.
High-yield and investment-grade notes were prepared for losses in both euros and dollars, the first time such assets posted negative total returns since 2008, based on Bloomberg Barclays indexes. European spreads staged their biggest weekly jump in almost seven years as euro high-yield spreads widened, while dollar investment-grade spreads reached two-year highs.
Some perceived a silver lining among the gloom, at least on the equity side. Bloomberg concluded that bearish sentiment was low enough to signal stock market bottoms. In the S&P 500 Index, for example, 41% of the stocks are down over 20% from their most recent 52-week high and another 31% are down between 10-20% from their 52-week high.
“There hasn’t been a narrower range for a full year since 2005, when the spread was 11.9 percent,” Bloomberg reported, an observation that inspired Horan Capital Advisers to suggest that this “may be the necessary recipe for an equity market rebound.”
Similarly, ZeroHedge, in its analysis of Goldman Sachs’ “Bear Market Risk Indicator” pronounced the prospect of a bear market “has almost never been greater” and encouraged investors to exploit market weakness as a buying opportunity.
Amid volatile financial markets, rising wages and docile inflation, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a less hawkish monetary policy next year. It was unclear, however, if he was inclined to nudge rates above neutral, as he had earlier suggested, or if he anticipates fewer rate hikes or even a pause.
In its second estimate of third quarter GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5%, in line with both expectations and the first estimate released a month ago. Economists cited tariff-related uncertainty, cooling global demand, rising borrowing costs and plunging oil prices as economic headwinds while at the same time noting that the boost from lower taxes is projected to fade next year. A politically divided Congress, especially in today’s tense environment, is unlikely to add any additional stimulus.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank
ImpactECON, a consulting firm associated with Koch Industries—who has argued against the Trump administration’s protectionist trade policies from the outset—estimated that U.S.-led trade conflicts could cost Americans $915 each, or $2,400 per household, in the form of higher prices, lower wages and lower investment returns in 2019.
Personal income and spending data in November and November rose 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively, on a month-to-month basis, the biggest monthly spike in 2018, after slowing in September. With spending continuing to outpace income, personal savings data fell to 6.2% in November, its lowest level since December 2017.
The Fed reported that total consumer credit in September rose to $4.0 trillion, rising $10.9 billion in the month and missing expectations of a $15 billion increase. However, the value of student loans outstanding and auto debt set record highs at $1.56 trillion and $1.14 trillion respectively, allying concerns that consumers have lost their appetite for debt.
The latest Senior Loan Officer Survey from the Fed revealed falling demand for residential mortgages, following recent quarters of declines. The survey pointed out that in the past, declines in residential investment were followed by recessions. In a related development, the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with a 20% down-payment rose to 5.17% for the latest reporting week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association – the highest average rate since September 2009.
U.S. Industrial Production growth slowed again in November by 0.1% MoM, well below expectations and thanks in part to hurricanes that disrupted industrial production. Year-over-year growth in industrial production slowed from 5.6% to 4.1%. Sales of durable goods, meanwhile, plunged in November by 4.4% MoM versus expectations of a 2.6% decline, due in large part to a 59.3% MoM collapse in defense aircraft spending.
General Motors again made headlines when announced it would cut production of slow-selling models and slash its North American workforce because of a declining market for traditional gas-powered sedans, shifting more investment to electric and autonomous vehicles. The move represented the biggest restructuring for the top American carmaker since its bankruptcy a decade ago and marked a turning point for the North American auto industry.
The National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index reached a strong 107.4, down 1.4 points from the Index’s 45-year August high. The group reported that small businesses “added significant numbers of new workers to the employment pool” as members “believe the current period is a good time to expand substantially.”
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in November to 135.7, down from 137.9 in November. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved slightly, from 171.9 to 172.7 while the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions—decreased to 111.0.
November’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index slipped from September’s levels with current conditions and expectations both declining. In particular, respondents expressed concerns over the prospects for continued interest rate increases.
The International Monetary Fund, in addition to the Fed, JPMorgan and others, sounded the alarm over leveraged loans as excessively speculative instruments. The $1.3 trillion global leverage loans market involves loans, usually arranged by a syndicate of banks, to companies that are heavily indebted or have weak credit ratings. They are “leveraged” because the ratio of the borrower’s debt to assets or earnings significantly exceeds industry norms and may collapse as global growth slows and tighter financial conditions bite.
Speaking of which, Goldman Sachs issued a note arguing that fiscal policy will emerge as a key support for growth as other governments follow the U.S.’ lead in fiscal largess. “Looking ahead to 2019, we expect a similar contribution of fiscal growth as in 2018, but the composition shifts from being U.S.-centric to being more broadly based across developed and emerging markets,” Goldman wrote.
Weaker exports were the primary driver behind Germany’s first quarterly economic contraction since 2015, according to the Federal Statistics Office, which confirmed a preliminary negative reading of 0.2% in Q3. In addition, flash PMI figures from IHS Markit showed Germany’s manufacturing output slipping to a 67-month low amid a broader eurozone economic slowdown.
Italian deputy premier Luigi Di Maio declared after a cabinet meeting that the country’s most recent draft budget “is the budget the country needs to start up again,” though Rome could risk a fine from the austerity-minded European Union totaling 0.2% of Italy’s annual GDP and the freezing of some funding. The euro came under pressure on the news, while Italian debt sold off.
In the Far East, Japan’s central bank has become the first among G7 nations to own assets collectively worth more than the country’s entire economy, following a half-decade spending spree designed to accelerate weak price growth. The 553.6 trillion yen ($4.87 trillion) of assets the Bank of Japan holds are worth more than five times Apple Inc., the world’s most valuable company and 25 times the market capitalization of Japan’s most valuable company, Toyota Motor Corporation.
The Japanese economy, meanwhile, contracted an annualized 1.2% in Q3, lashed by strong typhoons and a powerful earthquake that halted factories and stifled consumption. Exports also slowed, suggesting trade protectionism is starting to take its toll on overseas demand.
If these waters sound difficult to navigate, it’s because they are. Markets are much more volatile than they were in 2017—though 2018 is much more normal, historically speaking, than 2017 was—and geopolitical tensions continue to impact investment decisions. Nevertheless investors across the globe, including the team here at Partnervest, are keeping a watchful eye on these and other developments.
Of particular focus is the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting on December 19th—now just a couple of weeks away. We anticipate another 25bps rate hike, in addition to more clarity surrounding monetary policy going into 2019. As always, we are always looking for opportunities to maximize value for you, our trusted and valued clients.
Very Truly Yours,
Partnervest Advisory Services, CIO
AdvisorShares STAR Global Buy-Write ETF (VEGA), Portfolio Manager
Information is from sources deemed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed.
*Performance and pricing data used for VEGA ETF is based on the indicated value of the ETF at the close of the day.
The Barclays Capital U.S. Intermediate Government Bond Index measures the performance of U.S. Dollar denominated investment grade U.S. corporate securities that have a remaining maturity of greater than one year and less than ten years.
The Cboe S&P 500 BuyWrite Index (BXM) is a benchmark index designed to track the performance of a hypothetical buy-write strategy on the S&P 500 Index.
he MSCI World Index is a market cap weighted index which captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets countries.
An option is a privilege, sold by one party to another that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call) or sell (put) a stock at an agreed upon price within a certain period or on a specific date. An option premium is income received by an investor who sells or “writes” an option contract to another party. A covered call option involves holding a long position in a particular asset, in this case shares of an ETP, and writing a call option on that same asset with the goal of realizing additional income from the option premium. A put option is a contract that gives the owner of the option the right to sell a specified amount of the asset underlying the option at a specified price within a specified time. A protective put is an option strategy which entails buys shares of a security and, at the same time, enough put options to cover those shares. This can act as a hedge on the invested security, since matching puts with shares of the stock can limit the downside (due to the nature of puts). Exercising an option means to put into effect the right specified in a contract.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.
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There is no guarantee that the Fund will achieve its investment objective. An investment in the Fund is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal amount invested. Other Fund risks included: allocation risk; derivative risk; early closing risk; Exchange Traded Note risk; liquidity risk, market risk; trading risk; commodity risk; concentration risk; counterparty risk; credit risk; emerging markets and foreign securities risk; foreign currency risk; large-, mid- and small- cap stock risk. Please see the prospectus for detailed information regarding risk. The Fund is also subject to options risk. Writing and purchasing call and put options are specialized activities and entail greater than ordinary investment risk. The value of the Fund’s positions in options fluctuates in response to the changes in value of the underlying security. The Fund also risks losing all or part of the cash paid for purchasing call and put options. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors.
Shares are bought and sold at market price (closing price) not NAV and are not individually redeemed from the Fund. Market price returns are based on the midpoint of the bid/ask spread at 4:00 pm Eastern Time (when NAV is normally determined), and do not represent the return you would receive if you traded at other times. Holdings and allocations are subject to risks and to change. The views in this commentary are those of the portfolio manager and may not reflect his views on the date this material is distributed or anytime thereafter.
The views in this material were those of the Portfolio Manager and may not reflect his views on the date this material is distributed or anytime thereafter. These views are intended to assist shareholders in understanding their investments and do not constitute investment advice.